Thursday, May 14, 2009

How about making moolah the rice, atta and daal way?


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With stock markets running out of gas, and equity becoming a property too hot – or cold – to handle, investors might see better prospect in commodity trading


When the stock markets the world over are biting dust, everyone is looking for a cover. And most of them are landing up buying gold and gilt-edged securities. No doubt, these two are the safest bets at the moment, but then they are just wealth preservers. So why not try something that can also offer you some return. Well, in this regard have you ever considered commodities? It’s true that many investors are still apprehensive in their attitude towards the commodity market, but then many others have joined the bandwagon for it’s not too different from trading in the equity market. And this is quite obvious from the fact that total monthly turnover of Multi-Commodity Exchange has almost doubled from Rs.2.1 trillion in January 2007 to Rs.4.1 trillion in January 2009.

Noted investment banker Jim Rogers tells us, “In the future, investing in commodities would be the most lucrative bet.” Reflecting this sentiment, 2008 has been a fairly good year for people who had invested in the market as commodities were the only thing moving up. However, the outlook for 2009 does not seem to be on the lines of 2008, especially if one is expecting to hedge their risks or are expecting similar returns. Arvind Bansal, Chief Investment Officer, ING Investment Management, informs 4PsB&M, “From a valuation and a price correction perspective, there has been a sharp correction in the commodity market like in real estate and equity.” The profits of various organisations have nose-dived, which has led to decreased production levels and in turn, a decline in the supply of these commodities. Therefore, much of the concepts in this market ride on how the ever illogical demand curve takes shape. With various governments trying all they can to revive the state of economy, it is expected that the demand for commodities would start to look up in the near future; and most analysts are pegging that the period post May-June might see some of the developing economies showing positive trends which would marginally shoot up the demand for commodities.

Though according to Amar Singh, the head of research at Angel Commodities, “For the year 2009, bullion will be the best bet.” Joseph Massey, CEO, MCX, accepts, “The most traded products on our exchange have been bullion, which continues to be a favourite.” But then, one must not forget agro products like sugar that yielded a good return for their investors in 2008. At the same time, investors also must be selective in picking up the commodities and become futuristic. Because living on past favourites can be deadly for them in the commodities market. Crude, perhaps, is the best example in this regard at the moment.

Having said all that, and more, allow us to sweetly warn you, whatever we write out here and in the other pages can come to nought, for though we may be smarter than what we think, the money is still yours honey.

Surbhi Chawla

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2009

An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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