Friday, February 11, 2011

KOSOVO CONFLICT: Breathless in Belgrade

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ICJ's decision on Kosovo will help both Belgrade and Pristina to move ahead, says Saurabh Kumar Shahi

'If it is ok for the Kosovar Albanians, why isn't it for the Karabakh Armenians' seems to be the new rhetoric around the world. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) at The Hague has cast off Serbia's case that the assertion of independence of Kosovo had no legal base. In a landmark' and surprisingly unambiguous' judgment, the judges of the UN's top legal body have held with a majority of 10 to 4 that the declaration of independence from Serbia on February 17, 2008 did not violate international law.

The judgment has yet again brought forth the division in the international community. The UN Security Council is deeply fractured over the Western-backed international recognition of Kosovo wherein three of its five members with veto power (the US, UK and France) have accepted the declaration of independence, while China has expressed apprehension, urging the continuance of earlier conciliation agenda. Russia, on the other hand, considers it illegal.

As things stand today, 69 out of 192 sovereign UN member states have officially recognised Kosovo. Majority of the EU (22 out of 27) and NATO (24 out of 28) members have also recognised Kosovo. Among its immediate neighbours, only Serbia refuses to recognise it. Fourteen nations have set up their embassies till now. If recognition touches 100, it will offer fresh impetus for Kosovo's progress and integration with the world.

The nations that contest recognition of Kosovo suggest that such an act in the Balkans, a powder-keg, will further the ethnic claim for greater autonomy and will have severe implications for separatist activities around the globe. Russia, that spent two gory decades to squash a separatist rebellion in Chechnya, has recognised both insurgent Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as sovereign states but few have followed its lead. Spain, which has its own problems in Catalonia and Basque regions, has expectedly refused to recognize an independent Kosovo. The ruling will also provide momentum to the separatist movement in the Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh. International experts are closely watching the implications of the judgment. Dr. Bibi van Ginkel, an expert on separatist militant movement at Clingendael Security and Conflict Programme, believes that since the judgment is not legally binding, individual states can interpret it as they wish. 'Although the judgment is provocative, it will present an outline for diplomats to attempt and launch a functioning relationship between Belgrade and Pristina,' she said while talking to TSI from The Hague. Very slyly, the court appears to have evaded the prickly question of the right of people to self-determination over the right of a sovereign state to territorial integrity. It has instead maintained that Pristina's legitimacy will be decided by the sovereign nations that recognise it and not by the ICJ.

Among other things, the judgment has also reinforced that whether a rebel region can legitimize itself amidst the international community is essentially a political rather than a legal question at the root. The Armenian dominated enclave of Karabakh declared independence from Azerbaijan but it was not recognised by any other sovereign nations, not even Armenia. In case of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Russia, with all the resources at its disposal, could not muster even a little recognition. As far as Serbia is concerned, it is understandable that the decision has not gone down well with them and they feel cheated.

However, the judgment has also, in its own way, will set the wheel rolling for Belgrade. Serbia has quietly understood that Kosovo has gone forever and it's time to move on. With Russia on its back, Serbia will continue to fight diplomatic battle at international forums, but those will be futile. Belgrade's future lies as a full member of the EU and its amiable relationship with its neighbours. A serious political and economic reform will follow.

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